The weakening supply and demand pattern of rebar will still be under pressure
Due to weak terminal demand and relatively low turnover, domestic spot steel prices declined slightly, with a relatively large decline in construction steel. The strength of ore prices boosted the market, thread futures prices rebounded from lows, but its own supply and demand pattern is still weakening, steel production is stable. Profits per ton of steel continue to shrink, some construction steel mills have begun to lose money and reduce production, production recovery space is limited, pay attention to the subsequent production reduction.
At the same time, the demand for threads has not performed well, and the weekly table needs to be another 223000 tons less than the previous month. Although there are holiday factors disturbance, but high-frequency daily trading volume is also low, demand stage peak, worry continues to be under pressure. Steel price.
In short, the steel mill production is stable, the high thread supply pressure still exists, the peak season demand performance is not good, the fear of a periodic peak has not subsided. The supply and demand pattern of the line is weakening. Conditions.
The short-term disturbance of ore supply caused by hurricane in Australia has led to a rebound in iron ore futures prices, but the pattern of ore supply and demand has not changed much, steel production is stable and ore terminal consumption remains high. Consumption continued to increase month-on-month and continued to hit new highs for the year and the same period. Strong demand for iron ore continues to support iron ore prices.
However, some steel mills have begun to lose money, and the output of hot metal is absolutely high. The market worry about the negative feedback of production reduction has not subsided, and the superimposed policy disturbance of production reduction does not have a strong positive effect on the demand side.
Relevant institutions show that after about three consecutive weeks of adjustment, domestic steel prices basically fell back to the price level at the end of November this year, and the market risk is gradually being released. Under the support of factors such as the overall low inventory, the steel market merchants are not willing to continue to reduce prices, and the market is mainly stabilized in the short term.
At the same time, the arrival volume of domestic ore continues to rise. The comparative advantage is that global iron ore shipments have fallen from high levels. However, according to the shipping schedule, the number of domestic arrivals will remain stable. Superimposed by the recovery of domestic ore supply, ore supply continues to increase.
To sum up, the production of steel mills is stable and the ore demand is strong in the peak season, which will continue to support ore prices, but the positive effect will be weakened under the expectation of negative feedback. On the contrary, iron ore supply will continue to rise seasonally. The policy regulation risk and the crude steel production reduction policy disturbance, the follow-up mineral price will continue to operate under pressure.